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icon for Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?
Politika·Mojtaba

Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?

icon for Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?
Politika·Mojtaba

Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?

$24,014,907 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$24,014,907 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$1,454,663 Vol.

<1%

September 30

$483,748 Vol.

3%

October 31

$25,718 Vol.

7%

November 30

$18,737 Vol.

10%

Disyembre 31

$4,096,232 Vol.

16%

June 30, 2027

$248,087 Vol.

25%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the 2026 Iran war created an immediate leadership vacuum, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March. The process relied on Iran's constitutional interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a senior cleric, followed by a vote that prioritized continuity amid wartime pressures and external threats. Mojtaba has remained out of public view due to reported injuries from the same attack, fueling questions about his effective authority and potential shifts toward collective decision-making involving the IRGC and other institutions. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments in the conflict's aftermath continue to shape assessments of further transitions or stability through late 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,014,907
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the 2026 Iran war created an immediate leadership vacuum, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March. The process relied on Iran's constitutional interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a senior cleric, followed by a vote that prioritized continuity amid wartime pressures and external threats. Mojtaba has remained out of public view due to reported injuries from the same attack, fueling questions about his effective authority and potential shifts toward collective decision-making involving the IRGC and other institutions. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments in the conflict's aftermath continue to shape assessments of further transitions or stability through late 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,014,907
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kaugnay

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

28%
icon for Si Mojtaba Khamenei ba ang magiging pinuno ng estado sa Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

Si Mojtaba Khamenei ba ang magiging pinuno ng estado sa Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

82%
Oo
icon for Pamumunuan ba ni Reza Pahlavi ang Iran sa 2026?

Pamumunuan ba ni Reza Pahlavi ang Iran sa 2026?

3%
Oo

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 14 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "June 30, 2027" sa 25%, sinusundan ng "Disyembre 31" sa 16%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 25¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 25% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay naka-generate ng $24 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Mar 8, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?," i-browse ang 14 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay "June 30, 2027" sa 25%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 25% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Disyembre 31" sa 16%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.