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icon for Montana Senate Election: Turnout
Politika·Turnout

Montana Senate Election: Turnout

icon for Montana Senate Election: Turnout
Politika·Turnout

Montana Senate Election: Turnout

<350K 44%

350K-400K 44%

600K+ 44%

400K-450K 43%

Polymarket
BAGO

<350K 44%

350K-400K 44%

600K+ 44%

400K-450K 43%

Polymarket
BAGO

<350K

$0 Vol.

44%

350K-400K

$0 Vol.

44%

400K-450K

$0 Vol.

43%

450K-500K

$0 Vol.

43%

500K-550K

$0 Vol.

43%

550K-600K

$0 Vol.

43%

600K+

$0 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate contest features an open seat with Republican nominee Kurt Alme facing Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, producing closely matched trader probabilities across turnout brackets from under 350,000 to over 600,000 votes. This balance stems from an off-year midterm environment in a solidly Republican state where historical participation rates vary with mobilization efforts, independent voter trends (around 42% in recent surveys), and limited cross-party consolidation behind the Democratic nominee. Alme's strong primary performance and polling lead have anchored expectations, yet Bodnar's independent candidacy and variable get-out-the-vote intensity among rural and independent blocs introduce uncertainty over total ballots cast. National political conditions, early voting patterns, and election-day logistics in November could shift participation enough to separate the brackets.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate contest features an open seat with Republican nominee Kurt Alme facing Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, producing closely matched trader probabilities across turnout brackets from under 350,000 to over 600,000 votes. This balance stems from an off-year midterm environment in a solidly Republican state where historical participation rates vary with mobilization efforts, independent voter trends (around 42% in recent surveys), and limited cross-party consolidation behind the Democratic nominee. Alme's strong primary performance and polling lead have anchored expectations, yet Bodnar's independent candidacy and variable get-out-the-vote intensity among rural and independent blocs introduce uncertainty over total ballots cast. National political conditions, early voting patterns, and election-day logistics in November could shift participation enough to separate the brackets.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Montana Senate Election: Turnout" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "<350K" sa 45%, sinusundan ng "350K-400K" sa 45%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 45¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 45% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Montana Senate Election: Turnout" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 18, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Montana Senate Election: Turnout," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Montana Senate Election: Turnout" ay "<350K" sa 45%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 45% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "350K-400K" sa 45%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Montana Senate Election: Turnout" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.