Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York following not-guilty pleas, with a proposed trial date in June 2027 and ongoing pretrial motions on issues including jurisdiction and immunity claims. Trader assessments of near-term release by specific deadlines reflect the extended federal prosecution timeline, limited prospects for quick plea agreements or dismissals, diplomatic pressure from Venezuela’s interim authorities under Delcy Rodríguez, and the absence of reported health or procedural developments that would accelerate custody changes. Markets assign higher implied probability to continued detention through late 2026 absent major shifts in court scheduling or executive action.