The NFL's June 2026 decision not to conduct a supplemental draft—after reviewing Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby's application and confirming no other eligible players sought entry—forms the core driver behind current trader pricing near even odds. The league holds discretion under the collective bargaining agreement to convene the event only when warranted, a threshold rarely met in recent cycles, with the last selection occurring in 2019 and no drafts staged since 2023. This creates balance because supplemental eligibility windows remain open through late summer in principle, allowing for late-emerging NCAA eligibility resolutions or additional applicants that could alter the outcome. Market consensus reflects uncertainty over whether isolated cases or policy shifts might still prompt action before year-end, even as roster and draft timelines advance toward the 2027 cycle.