The Supreme Court’s June 30 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to AR-15-style rifle bans in Connecticut and Cook County, Illinois, forms the primary driver behind the current trader consensus. With a 6-3 conservative majority that has steadily expanded Second Amendment protections in recent terms—including a June ruling striking down a Hawaii carry restriction—market participants see a meaningful chance the Court will deem such weapons in “common use” and thus constitutionally protected. Arguments are set for the October term, with a decision expected by mid-2027. While lower courts have upheld the bans and gun-control advocates emphasize public safety concerns tied to mass shootings, the Court’s prior signals from Justices Kavanaugh and others tilt implied probabilities slightly above even for invalidation. No major new filings or statements have emerged since the grant.