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icon for Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

icon for Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

BAGO
Dec 31, 2028
Polymarket

$929 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2027

$884 Vol.

12%

December 31, 2028

$45 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Social Security Trustees Report from June 2026 projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced revenue from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's tax changes. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034 depletion, with 78-83% of scheduled benefits payable afterward absent reforms. A September 2026 CBO update aligns closely but shows modestly larger long-term shortfalls. These official timelines, alongside ongoing cash deficits and reserves now at $2.56 trillion, anchor trader views on near-term insolvency risks, while bipartisan proposals like the PROMISE Act and potential 2027 report revisions introduce uncertainty around legislative fixes or updated demographics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.

A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.

The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$929
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2029
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Social Security Trustees Report from June 2026 projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced revenue from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's tax changes. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034 depletion, with 78-83% of scheduled benefits payable afterward absent reforms. A September 2026 CBO update aligns closely but shows modestly larger long-term shortfalls. These official timelines, alongside ongoing cash deficits and reserves now at $2.56 trillion, anchor trader views on near-term insolvency risks, while bipartisan proposals like the PROMISE Act and potential 2027 report revisions introduce uncertainty around legislative fixes or updated demographics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.

A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.

The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$929
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2029
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Social Security Insolvent by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 2 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "December 31, 2028" sa 22%, sinusundan ng "December 31, 2027" sa 15%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 22¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 22% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Social Security Insolvent by...?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jun 9, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Social Security Insolvent by...?," i-browse ang 2 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Social Security Insolvent by...?" ay "December 31, 2028" sa 22%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 22% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "December 31, 2027" sa 15%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Social Security Insolvent by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.