**US-Iran diplomacy in 2026 centers on indirect channels amid the ongoing conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28.** Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader after his father’s death in those strikes and has remained out of public view while recovering from serious injuries. President Trump has repeatedly signaled openness to a personal meeting if a broader deal materializes, including comments in June about being “honored” to meet under the right conditions. Iranian officials, including senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have consistently rejected the prospect as unrealistic, stating it “will not happen” and emphasizing that any engagement must first address frozen assets, sanctions relief, and core security concerns. A June memorandum of understanding aimed at halting hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching further talks collapsed amid renewed tensions and shipping attacks. As of mid-September, Trump has described “direct” contacts with Iranian counterparts and expressed hope that the war is nearing its end, yet these appear to involve standard diplomatic representatives rather than the reclusive Supreme Leader. Traders price a direct Trump-Mojtaba conversation as low-probability because Mojtaba maintains minimal visibility, Iranian hardliners prioritize regime security over personal engagement, and historical precedent favors mediated or presidential-level talks. Key near-term catalysts include any resumption of high-level negotiations, visible progress on nuclear or sanctions issues, or public signals from Tehran clarifying whether Mojtaba could participate in future diplomacy.