Recent USD/KRW levels near 1,518 reflect persistent upward pressure from strong Korean resident demand for overseas assets, including pension and equity outflows, alongside a wide interest-rate differential favoring the dollar. The Bank of Korea’s 2.50% base rate contrasts with market expectations for further Federal Reserve easing in 2026, which could narrow that gap and support won appreciation if U.S. labor data weakens. Authorities’ late-2025 interventions and verbal guidance have curbed extreme moves, while Korea’s anticipated World Government Bond Index inclusion may draw portfolio inflows later this year. Traders also monitor global risk appetite, energy prices, and any renewed fiscal or trade policy shifts that could alter dollar demand. Resolution hinges on whether these structural outflows and policy divergences keep the pair above or push it toward lower analyst targets around 1,400–1,450 by year-end.