Recent generic ballot polls, including YouGov/Economist (D+2 to +5), CNN/SSRS (D+6), and Morning Consult (D+3) from early April 2026, show Democrats leading Republicans by 3-6 points on average, down slightly from larger mid-cycle advantages like Quinnipiac's D+11 in March. This trader consensus on Polymarket positions modest Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-8% as leading outcomes alongside "Other" at 45.5%, reflecting uncertainty from gerrymandering, battleground district dynamics, and narrowing leads amid President Trump's sub-40% approval tied to the unpopular Iran War and rising fuel prices. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party favor Democrats, but turnout in swing states and upcoming primaries could shift probabilities before the November 3 election.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 Ara Sınavları: Ev Popüler Oy Zafer Marjı
2026 Ara Sınavları: Ev Popüler Oy Zafer Marjı
Demokratlar %6-%8 24%
Demokratlar %10-12 18%
Demokratlar %4-%6 18%
Cumhuriyetçiler %0-2 17.3%
$30,687 Hac.
$30,687 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Demokratlar %16+
5%
Demokratlar %14-16
7%
Demokratlar %12-%14
2%
Demokratlar %10-12
18%
Demokratlar %8-10
16%
Demokratlar %6-%8
20%
Demokratlar %4-%6
18%
Demokratlar %2-%4
8%
Demokratlar %0-%2
4%
Cumhuriyetçiler %0-2
17%
Cumhuriyetçiler %2-%4
10%
Cumhuriyetçiler %4-%6
2%
Cumhuriyetçiler %6+
1%
Demokratlar %6-%8 24%
Demokratlar %10-12 18%
Demokratlar %4-%6 18%
Cumhuriyetçiler %0-2 17.3%
$30,687 Hac.
$30,687 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Demokratlar %16+
$181 Hac.
5%
Demokratlar %14-16
$302 Hac.
7%
Demokratlar %12-%14
$187 Hac.
2%
Demokratlar %10-12
$766 Hac.
18%
Demokratlar %8-10
$361 Hac.
16%
Demokratlar %6-%8
$225 Hac.
20%
Demokratlar %4-%6
$181 Hac.
18%
Demokratlar %2-%4
$812 Hac.
8%
Demokratlar %0-%2
$834 Hac.
4%
Cumhuriyetçiler %0-2
$195 Hac.
17%
Cumhuriyetçiler %2-%4
$25,796 Hac.
10%
Cumhuriyetçiler %4-%6
$188 Hac.
2%
Cumhuriyetçiler %6+
$659 Hac.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polls, including YouGov/Economist (D+2 to +5), CNN/SSRS (D+6), and Morning Consult (D+3) from early April 2026, show Democrats leading Republicans by 3-6 points on average, down slightly from larger mid-cycle advantages like Quinnipiac's D+11 in March. This trader consensus on Polymarket positions modest Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-8% as leading outcomes alongside "Other" at 45.5%, reflecting uncertainty from gerrymandering, battleground district dynamics, and narrowing leads amid President Trump's sub-40% approval tied to the unpopular Iran War and rising fuel prices. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party favor Democrats, but turnout in swing states and upcoming primaries could shift probabilities before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Hacim
$30,687Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polls, including YouGov/Economist (D+2 to +5), CNN/SSRS (D+6), and Morning Consult (D+3) from early April 2026, show Democrats leading Republicans by 3-6 points on average, down slightly from larger mid-cycle advantages like Quinnipiac's D+11 in March. This trader consensus on Polymarket positions modest Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-8% as leading outcomes alongside "Other" at 45.5%, reflecting uncertainty from gerrymandering, battleground district dynamics, and narrowing leads amid President Trump's sub-40% approval tied to the unpopular Iran War and rising fuel prices. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party favor Democrats, but turnout in swing states and upcoming primaries could shift probabilities before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Hacim
$30,687Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polls, including YouGov/Economist (D+2 to +5), CNN/SSRS (D+6), and Morning Consult (D+3) from early April 2026, show Democrats leading Republicans by 3-6 points on average, down slightly from larger mid-cycle advantages like Quinnipiac's D+11 in March. This trader consensus on Polymarket positions modest Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-8% as leading outcomes alongside "Other" at 45.5%, reflecting uncertainty from gerrymandering, battleground district dynamics, and narrowing leads amid President Trump's sub-40% approval tied to the unpopular Iran War and rising fuel prices. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party favor Democrats, but turnout in swing states and upcoming primaries could shift probabilities before the November 3 election.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular