Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiCDC 31 Aralık'a kadar Seviye 4 uyarısı veriyor mu?
CDC 31 Aralık'a kadar Seviye 4 uyarısı veriyor mu?
Evet
$69,982 Hac.
$69,982 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$69,982 Hac.
$69,982 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Hacim
$69,982Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$69,982Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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