Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 96.9% implied probability for no charges against Joe Kent by April 30, driven by the absence of any indictment or arrest over a month after the FBI's March 18 probe into alleged classified leaks surfaced—predating his resignation as National Counterterrorism Center director over the Iran war. No DOJ actions, grand jury developments, or new evidence have emerged in the past 30 days, underscoring the typically protracted timeline for federal leak investigations amid political tensions. Realistic upset scenarios remain slim but include a late-breaking indictment from accelerated grand jury proceedings or leaked charging documents before the deadline, though historical patterns favor prolonged scrutiny over swift resolution.