Trader consensus implies a 58% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven primarily by recent health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, 76, who sought medical attention for dehydration following an event in March, as confirmed by the Court on April 3. President Trump stated on April 15 he is prepared with nominees should a vacancy arise, amid speculation Alito may retire before the 2026 midterms to ensure Republican Senate confirmation. Justice Clarence Thomas, 77, has signaled no retirement plans, while no liberal justices face similar pressure. Lifetime appointments and historical patterns—where retirements often align with favorable political windows—fuel uncertainty, with odds reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of these developments absent official announcements.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus implies a 58% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven primarily by recent health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, 76, who sought medical attention for dehydration following an event in March, as confirmed by the Court on April 3. President Trump stated on April 15 he is prepared with nominees should a vacancy arise, amid speculation Alito may retire before the 2026 midterms to ensure Republican Senate confirmation. Justice Clarence Thomas, 77, has signaled no retirement plans, while no liberal justices face similar pressure. Lifetime appointments and historical patterns—where retirements often align with favorable political windows—fuel uncertainty, with odds reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of these developments absent official announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Hacim
$3,651Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus implies a 58% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven primarily by recent health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, 76, who sought medical attention for dehydration following an event in March, as confirmed by the Court on April 3. President Trump stated on April 15 he is prepared with nominees should a vacancy arise, amid speculation Alito may retire before the 2026 midterms to ensure Republican Senate confirmation. Justice Clarence Thomas, 77, has signaled no retirement plans, while no liberal justices face similar pressure. Lifetime appointments and historical patterns—where retirements often align with favorable political windows—fuel uncertainty, with odds reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of these developments absent official announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$3,651Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 58% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven primarily by recent health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, 76, who sought medical attention for dehydration following an event in March, as confirmed by the Court on April 3. President Trump stated on April 15 he is prepared with nominees should a vacancy arise, amid speculation Alito may retire before the 2026 midterms to ensure Republican Senate confirmation. Justice Clarence Thomas, 77, has signaled no retirement plans, while no liberal justices face similar pressure. Lifetime appointments and historical patterns—where retirements often align with favorable political windows—fuel uncertainty, with odds reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of these developments absent official announcements.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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