State Senator Mayes Middleton holds a commanding 76.5% implied probability in the Texas Attorney General Republican primary runoff against U.S. Representative Chip Roy (27.5%), driven by his substantial self-funding—nearly $14 million injected into the campaign—and first-place finish with 39% in the March 3 primary. Recent momentum includes Aaron Reitz's April 13 endorsement, the third-place primary finisher praising Middleton's alignment with President Trump and superior conservative voting record while critiquing Roy's past Trump criticisms. Roy counters with attacks on immigration and "Islamists," but faces headwinds from media scrutiny and perceptions of insufficient base loyalty. The May 26 runoff remains competitive amid active campaigning in key counties.