Despite persistent advocacy from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AK Party for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 coup-era document, traders price a referendum announcement in 2026 at just 16.5% probability, reflecting stalled progress amid parliamentary hurdles. The Milli Dayanışma, Kardeşlik ve Demokrasi Commission's February 18 report urged constitutional reforms tied to disarmament and reintegration efforts, while AK Party teams prepared drafts for Erdoğan's review by late February, yet he affirmed no firm timeline. Ruling coalition holds around 326 seats, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential bypass. Opposition CHP resistance and competing priorities like infaz reforms and amnesties have sidelined momentum through early April, underscoring structural barriers to advancement by year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite persistent advocacy from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AK Party for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 coup-era document, traders price a referendum announcement in 2026 at just 16.5% probability, reflecting stalled progress amid parliamentary hurdles. The Milli Dayanışma, Kardeşlik ve Demokrasi Commission's February 18 report urged constitutional reforms tied to disarmament and reintegration efforts, while AK Party teams prepared drafts for Erdoğan's review by late February, yet he affirmed no firm timeline. Ruling coalition holds around 326 seats, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential bypass. Opposition CHP resistance and competing priorities like infaz reforms and amnesties have sidelined momentum through early April, underscoring structural barriers to advancement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Hacim
$204Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite persistent advocacy from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AK Party for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 coup-era document, traders price a referendum announcement in 2026 at just 16.5% probability, reflecting stalled progress amid parliamentary hurdles. The Milli Dayanışma, Kardeşlik ve Demokrasi Commission's February 18 report urged constitutional reforms tied to disarmament and reintegration efforts, while AK Party teams prepared drafts for Erdoğan's review by late February, yet he affirmed no firm timeline. Ruling coalition holds around 326 seats, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential bypass. Opposition CHP resistance and competing priorities like infaz reforms and amnesties have sidelined momentum through early April, underscoring structural barriers to advancement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$204Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite persistent advocacy from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AK Party for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 coup-era document, traders price a referendum announcement in 2026 at just 16.5% probability, reflecting stalled progress amid parliamentary hurdles. The Milli Dayanışma, Kardeşlik ve Demokrasi Commission's February 18 report urged constitutional reforms tied to disarmament and reintegration efforts, while AK Party teams prepared drafts for Erdoğan's review by late February, yet he affirmed no firm timeline. Ruling coalition holds around 326 seats, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential bypass. Opposition CHP resistance and competing priorities like infaz reforms and amnesties have sidelined momentum through early April, underscoring structural barriers to advancement by year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular