Skip to main content
Market icon
Teknoloji·Google

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Market icon
Teknoloji·Google

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Anthropic 40%

None in 2026 40%

OpenAI 12%

Google 10%

Polymarket

$31,414 Hac.

Anthropic 40%

None in 2026 40%

OpenAI 12%

Google 10%

Polymarket

$31,414 Hac.

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

Anthropic

$3,500 Hac.

40%

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

None in 2026

$5,082 Hac.

40%

Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

OpenAI

$5,104 Hac.

12%

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

Google

$5,030 Hac.

10%

Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

DeepSeek

$2,468 Hac.

2%

Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

xAI

$3,961 Hac.

1%

Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

Alibaba

$2,122 Hac.

1%

Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

Z.ai

$2,060 Hac.

1%

Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? icon

Mistral

$2,086 Hac.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 recently surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score near 1550—1549 on coding and around 1500 overall—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, fueling its 38.5% market-implied odds as trader consensus favors the firm for the first 1550 overall breakthrough in 2026. The "None in 2026" outcome at 40% reflects skepticism over scaling hurdles, including compute shortages and potential benchmark saturation, despite rapid frontier model iterations from labs like xAI's Grok 4 and DeepSeek. Key differentiators include Anthropic's aggressive release cadence—multiple Claude upgrades since January—and strengths in agentic reasoning and coding, though upcoming GPT-5 variants or Gemini previews could shift the closely contested race before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Hacim
$31,414
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 recently surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score near 1550—1549 on coding and around 1500 overall—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, fueling its 38.5% market-implied odds as trader consensus favors the firm for the first 1550 overall breakthrough in 2026. The "None in 2026" outcome at 40% reflects skepticism over scaling hurdles, including compute shortages and potential benchmark saturation, despite rapid frontier model iterations from labs like xAI's Grok 4 and DeepSeek. Key differentiators include Anthropic's aggressive release cadence—multiple Claude upgrades since January—and strengths in agentic reasoning and coding, though upcoming GPT-5 variants or Gemini previews could shift the closely contested race before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Hacim
$31,414
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 9 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 40% ile "Anthropic", ardından 40% ile "None in 2026" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 40¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 40% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?" toplam $31.4K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Feb 13, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 9 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?" için mevcut favori 40% ile "Anthropic"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 40% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 40% ile "None in 2026"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.