March IPCA inflation accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—up from 3.81% in February—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge and elevated food prices, prompting Central Bank Focus survey economists to revise end-2026 forecasts to 4.71%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling (3% center with ±1.5% tolerance). Polymarket traders reflect this hawkish shift with 39% implied probability for 5.00-5.49% versus 32.5% for 4.50-4.99%, pricing persistent upside risks from energy shocks amid geopolitical tensions and sticky core pressures, despite Selic benchmark at 15%. Key differentiators include oil trajectory and Copom's May policy response; further fuel moderation could favor sub-5% bins, while fiscal slippage tips higher. Next monthly IPCA due early May.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5.00-5.49% 38.4%
4.50-4.99% 32.5%
4.00-4.49% 10.3%
5.50-5.99% 6.0%
$53,723 Обс.
$53,723 Обс.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
6%
4.00-4.49%
10%
4.50-4.99%
32%
5.00-5.49%
38%
5.50-5.99%
6%
6.00-6.49%
5%
6.50-6.99%
2%
7.00%+
5%
5.00-5.49% 38.4%
4.50-4.99% 32.5%
4.00-4.49% 10.3%
5.50-5.99% 6.0%
$53,723 Обс.
$53,723 Обс.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$3,760 Обс.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$4,283 Обс.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$8,445 Обс.
6%
4.00-4.49%
$7,066 Обс.
10%
4.50-4.99%
$6,293 Обс.
32%
5.00-5.49%
$5,756 Обс.
38%
5.50-5.99%
$5,395 Обс.
6%
6.00-6.49%
$4,543 Обс.
5%
6.50-6.99%
$4,838 Обс.
2%
7.00%+
$3,345 Обс.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarch IPCA inflation accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—up from 3.81% in February—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge and elevated food prices, prompting Central Bank Focus survey economists to revise end-2026 forecasts to 4.71%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling (3% center with ±1.5% tolerance). Polymarket traders reflect this hawkish shift with 39% implied probability for 5.00-5.49% versus 32.5% for 4.50-4.99%, pricing persistent upside risks from energy shocks amid geopolitical tensions and sticky core pressures, despite Selic benchmark at 15%. Key differentiators include oil trajectory and Copom's May policy response; further fuel moderation could favor sub-5% bins, while fiscal slippage tips higher. Next monthly IPCA due early May.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Ринок відкрито: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Обсяг
$53,723Дата завершення
Jan 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarch IPCA inflation accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—up from 3.81% in February—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge and elevated food prices, prompting Central Bank Focus survey economists to revise end-2026 forecasts to 4.71%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling (3% center with ±1.5% tolerance). Polymarket traders reflect this hawkish shift with 39% implied probability for 5.00-5.49% versus 32.5% for 4.50-4.99%, pricing persistent upside risks from energy shocks amid geopolitical tensions and sticky core pressures, despite Selic benchmark at 15%. Key differentiators include oil trajectory and Copom's May policy response; further fuel moderation could favor sub-5% bins, while fiscal slippage tips higher. Next monthly IPCA due early May.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Обсяг
$53,723Дата завершення
Jan 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...March IPCA inflation accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—up from 3.81% in February—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge and elevated food prices, prompting Central Bank Focus survey economists to revise end-2026 forecasts to 4.71%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling (3% center with ±1.5% tolerance). Polymarket traders reflect this hawkish shift with 39% implied probability for 5.00-5.49% versus 32.5% for 4.50-4.99%, pricing persistent upside risks from energy shocks amid geopolitical tensions and sticky core pressures, despite Selic benchmark at 15%. Key differentiators include oil trajectory and Copom's May policy response; further fuel moderation could favor sub-5% bins, while fiscal slippage tips higher. Next monthly IPCA due early May.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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