Chapecoense sits last with just 14 points from 23 matches and a -22 goal difference, making relegation near-certain after a dismal campaign marked by heavy defeats and limited wins. Vasco da Gama (22 points), Remo (23), Mirassol (24), Internacional (25), Grêmio (25), and Santos (26) occupy the remaining danger zone, with recent results such as Vasco’s 1-4 loss to Palmeiras pushing the club’s modeled relegation risk above 60%. The tight mid-lower table cluster, direct clashes among these sides, and 14 rounds remaining heighten volatility, as improved form, squad depth, or favorable fixtures could shift survival chances for teams hovering near the 25-30 point mark.