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Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?

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Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?

8% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
8% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for The Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, 2026, driven by Bethesda Game Studios' recent confirmation of early full-production status following Starfield's post-launch support. Todd Howard emphasized in March 2026 interviews that the studio—now prioritizing the massive open-world RPG—is taking its time for quality, echoing the developer's history of extended cycles like Skyrim's five-year timeline since the 2018 teaser. With no new trailers, platforms, or windows announced amid Xbox showcases in April, the eight-month runway leaves insurmountable barriers. An upset would require an unprecedented surprise reveal and accelerated polish at upcoming events like Summer Game Fest, though historical precedents make this improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for The Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, 2026, driven by Bethesda Game Studios' recent confirmation of early full-production status following Starfield's post-launch support. Todd Howard emphasized in March 2026 interviews that the studio—now prioritizing the massive open-world RPG—is taking its time for quality, echoing the developer's history of extended cycles like Skyrim's five-year timeline since the 2018 teaser. With no new trailers, platforms, or windows announced amid Xbox showcases in April, the eight-month runway leaves insurmountable barriers. An upset would require an unprecedented surprise reveal and accelerated polish at upcoming events like Summer Game Fest, though historical precedents make this improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 8% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 8¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 8%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Mar 18, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?» — 8% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 8% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.