Ongoing regional tensions between Israel, Iran, and proxy actors continue to shape expectations around temporary airspace restrictions, following repeated closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran plus Iranian missile and drone responses. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July broke a prior ceasefire, prompting EASA advisories on risks in the Tel Aviv FIR despite the airspace remaining open as of mid-August. Recent assessments by Israeli transport officials have kept civilian operations at Ben-Gurion Airport active amid monitoring of threats from Yemen and elsewhere, while many international carriers maintain caution. Trader sentiment reflects this volatility and the absence of sustained full closures, with scheduled diplomatic or de-escalation developments potentially altering near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$27,263,577 Обс.
Jul 14, 2026
August 31
5%
September 30
11%
$27,263,577 Обс.
August 31
$1,231,696 Обс.
5%
September 30
$0 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions between Israel, Iran, and proxy actors continue to shape expectations around temporary airspace restrictions, following repeated closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran plus Iranian missile and drone responses. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July broke a prior ceasefire, prompting EASA advisories on risks in the Tel Aviv FIR despite the airspace remaining open as of mid-August. Recent assessments by Israeli transport officials have kept civilian operations at Ben-Gurion Airport active amid monitoring of threats from Yemen and elsewhere, while many international carriers maintain caution. Trader sentiment reflects this volatility and the absence of sustained full closures, with scheduled diplomatic or de-escalation developments potentially altering near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Обсяг
$27,263,577Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions between Israel, Iran, and proxy actors continue to shape expectations around temporary airspace restrictions, following repeated closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran plus Iranian missile and drone responses. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July broke a prior ceasefire, prompting EASA advisories on risks in the Tel Aviv FIR despite the airspace remaining open as of mid-August. Recent assessments by Israeli transport officials have kept civilian operations at Ben-Gurion Airport active amid monitoring of threats from Yemen and elsewhere, while many international carriers maintain caution. Trader sentiment reflects this volatility and the absence of sustained full closures, with scheduled diplomatic or de-escalation developments potentially altering near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$27,263,577Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions between Israel, Iran, and proxy actors continue to shape expectations around temporary airspace restrictions, following repeated closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran plus Iranian missile and drone responses. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July broke a prior ceasefire, prompting EASA advisories on risks in the Tel Aviv FIR despite the airspace remaining open as of mid-August. Recent assessments by Israeli transport officials have kept civilian operations at Ben-Gurion Airport active amid monitoring of threats from Yemen and elsewhere, while many international carriers maintain caution. Trader sentiment reflects this volatility and the absence of sustained full closures, with scheduled diplomatic or de-escalation developments potentially altering near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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