Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence of major releases—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader expectations for a K4 successor by year-end, even as the company has made no official announcement or timeline. Reports indicate Moonshot is actively seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, potentially navigating U.S. export controls, to support a significantly larger model, while recent U.S. agency and Anthropic allegations of large-scale distillation from Claude and GPT models introduce regulatory and technical uncertainty. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier releases, combined with K3’s strong coding benchmarks and open-weight appeal, supports continued momentum, though the absence of any confirmed K4 preview or API identifier leaves resolution dependent on whether Moonshot can deliver another flagship-scale model before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоKimi K4 released by…?
Kimi K4 released by…?
$17,814 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026
5%
$17,814 Обс.
October 31, 2026
$9,489 Обс.
3%
December 31, 2026
$8,325 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence of major releases—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader expectations for a K4 successor by year-end, even as the company has made no official announcement or timeline. Reports indicate Moonshot is actively seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, potentially navigating U.S. export controls, to support a significantly larger model, while recent U.S. agency and Anthropic allegations of large-scale distillation from Claude and GPT models introduce regulatory and technical uncertainty. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier releases, combined with K3’s strong coding benchmarks and open-weight appeal, supports continued momentum, though the absence of any confirmed K4 preview or API identifier leaves resolution dependent on whether Moonshot can deliver another flagship-scale model before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Обсяг
$17,814Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence of major releases—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader expectations for a K4 successor by year-end, even as the company has made no official announcement or timeline. Reports indicate Moonshot is actively seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, potentially navigating U.S. export controls, to support a significantly larger model, while recent U.S. agency and Anthropic allegations of large-scale distillation from Claude and GPT models introduce regulatory and technical uncertainty. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier releases, combined with K3’s strong coding benchmarks and open-weight appeal, supports continued momentum, though the absence of any confirmed K4 preview or API identifier leaves resolution dependent on whether Moonshot can deliver another flagship-scale model before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$17,814Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence of major releases—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader expectations for a K4 successor by year-end, even as the company has made no official announcement or timeline. Reports indicate Moonshot is actively seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, potentially navigating U.S. export controls, to support a significantly larger model, while recent U.S. agency and Anthropic allegations of large-scale distillation from Claude and GPT models introduce regulatory and technical uncertainty. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier releases, combined with K3’s strong coding benchmarks and open-weight appeal, supports continued momentum, though the absence of any confirmed K4 preview or API identifier leaves resolution dependent on whether Moonshot can deliver another flagship-scale model before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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