Steph Curry's status as a Warriors lifer with one year remaining on his deal and extension eligibility arriving in late August 2026 underpins the 73% implied probability he stays in Golden State. Recent reporting highlights mutual interest between Curry and the organization in a new extension, with no confirmed trade requests or strong suitor links emerging despite broader roster uncertainty. Lower probabilities across other clubs, clustered in the mid-40s or at 20%, reflect the absence of verified offseason movement or roster fits that would accelerate a departure. Trader consensus therefore treats continuity in Golden State as the baseline outcome while assigning modest upside to hypothetical 2027 free-agency scenarios.