**Strong critical reception from its Venice Film Festival premiere is lifting trader expectations for A24’s “Primetime,” an R-rated psychological thriller starring Robert Pattinson as Chris Hansen of “To Catch a Predator” fame.** The film earned a seven-to-eight-minute standing ovation on September 5, a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score, and widespread praise for Pattinson’s committed, Oscar-buzz performance, which critics have compared to his work in “Nightcrawler”-style roles. This festival momentum has traders assigning the highest implied probability (44.5%) to a 22 million-plus opening weekend, ahead of the 19–22 million and 16–19 million brackets. Initial industry tracking had pointed to a more modest $10–15 million debut for the stylized A24 release, typical for the distributor outside its biggest hits. However, the combination of Pattinson’s star draw, recent audience interest in true-crime and media-satire stories, and positive word-of-mouth from Venice appears to be shifting sentiment upward. The September 25–27 opening faces competition from Brad Pitt’s “Heart of the Beast” and an animated title, but the current market consensus treats the festival lift as a meaningful tailwind for the three-day gross. Traders will watch early reviews and social buzz closely for any last-minute adjustments before the numbers lock.