The NFL's June 2026 decision not to conduct a supplemental draft, following its review of Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby's eligibility petition, stands as the dominant factor behind the near-even market split. League officials cited the absence of other applicants and a multi-year pattern of skipping the event, leaving Sorsby ineligible until the 2027 draft. This creates competitive balance because legal challenges remain possible, and any late surge in additional prospects meeting supplemental criteria could prompt reconsideration. Recent form in player eligibility disputes and roster needs for teams facing sudden injuries or academic issues keep the outcome fluid heading into training camp.