The Supreme Court’s June 2026 decision to grant certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault weapons restrictions in Connecticut and Cook County has sharply raised expectations that the Court will strike down AR-15 bans under the Second Amendment. A 6-3 conservative majority has repeatedly expanded gun rights since the 2022 Bruen decision, and recent 2026 rulings further limited state and federal restrictions using the history-and-tradition test. The Trump administration’s September 2026 amicus brief reinforced this momentum by arguing that AR-15-style rifles qualify as arms in common use for lawful purposes and cannot be categorically prohibited. Oral arguments are scheduled for the fall term, with a decision likely by mid-2027, leaving little room for lower-court precedents upholding the bans to survive.