Sneako’s status as a U.S.-born citizen born in New York City eliminates any realistic path to deportation from the United States, anchoring the 96% market-implied probability for “No.” As a prominent livestreamer and social media personality with Haitian and Filipino ancestry, his recent high-profile visa cancellation and lifetime ban from Australia in May 2026 generated tabloid noise but had no bearing on domestic immigration status. Traders recognize that U.S. citizenship by birth confers ironclad protections absent extraordinary, historically unprecedented legal maneuvers. While the broader 2026 enforcement climate has produced isolated surprises for non-citizens, no credible reports or legal developments suggest Sneako faces removal proceedings. The slim upset window would require an unprecedented challenge to birthright citizenship itself.