The Chicago Bears’ ongoing stadium negotiations favor the “No” outcome through year-end, as the franchise’s lease at Soldier Field runs through 2033 and any early exit carries a significant penalty. Due diligence on Hammond sites continues without groundbreaking or financing finalized, while occasional Illinois discussions and NFL Commissioner input keep Arlington Heights viable. Construction timelines for a new venue typically span multiple years, making a completed relocation or operational shift out of state by December 31 unrealistic regardless of recent board votes or legislative maneuvering. Team performance and roster factors play no direct role, though sustained fan support and market stability in Illinois reinforce the extended timeline reflected in current pricing.