**Spain opened their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign in Group H with a surprising 0-0 draw against debutants Cape Verde on June 15, failing to score despite heavy possession and creating the tournament’s most notable early shock.** This result, combined with standout poor individual displays and Spain’s first winless streak in four World Cup matches, has introduced fresh uncertainty into elimination-stage pricing. Traders have priced “Other” (likely encompassing a deep run or title contention) at 50% as the consensus view that Spain’s underlying squad depth, midfield control, and attacking talent (anchored by players like Lamine Yamal) still position them for progression beyond the group and round of 32. Elevated probabilities on Round of 32 (21.5%) and Round of 16 (15.5%) reflect the immediate dent from the Cape Verde result and the expanded 48-team format’s tougher path, while lower but non-negligible odds on quarterfinals (14%), semifinals (14.5%), final (13%), and champion (13%) capture the realistic upside if Spain rebounds against Saudi Arabia and leverages their historical knockout pedigree. The Group Stage outcome sits at just 4.5%, underscoring that even after the setback, early elimination remains the outlier scenario given Spain’s quality and remaining fixtures. Overall, recent match data has widened the distribution across stages without shifting the market away from a strong-but-not-guaranteed trajectory.