Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election place the CDU at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) showing 20 percent and Civey at 19 percent amid a close race with Die Linke (19–21 percent), AfD (16–18 percent), and the Greens (16–17 percent). The CDU’s share has fallen sharply from its 28.2 percent result in the 2023 repeat election, reflecting coalition fatigue in the CDU-SPD Senate, the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner over credibility issues, and the subsequent switch to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, which produced only a modest three-point rebound in mid-July surveys. Rising support for Die Linke and AfD has further compressed the CDU’s position, leaving it vulnerable to finishing under the 20 percent threshold in a fragmented field where no two-party coalition currently projects a majority. Trader pricing on the under side at 56 percent aligns with this polling pattern and the narrow margin of error in the final weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOver
44% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Over
44% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election place the CDU at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) showing 20 percent and Civey at 19 percent amid a close race with Die Linke (19–21 percent), AfD (16–18 percent), and the Greens (16–17 percent). The CDU’s share has fallen sharply from its 28.2 percent result in the 2023 repeat election, reflecting coalition fatigue in the CDU-SPD Senate, the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner over credibility issues, and the subsequent switch to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, which produced only a modest three-point rebound in mid-July surveys. Rising support for Die Linke and AfD has further compressed the CDU’s position, leaving it vulnerable to finishing under the 20 percent threshold in a fragmented field where no two-party coalition currently projects a majority. Trader pricing on the under side at 56 percent aligns with this polling pattern and the narrow margin of error in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$541Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election place the CDU at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) showing 20 percent and Civey at 19 percent amid a close race with Die Linke (19–21 percent), AfD (16–18 percent), and the Greens (16–17 percent). The CDU’s share has fallen sharply from its 28.2 percent result in the 2023 repeat election, reflecting coalition fatigue in the CDU-SPD Senate, the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner over credibility issues, and the subsequent switch to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, which produced only a modest three-point rebound in mid-July surveys. Rising support for Die Linke and AfD has further compressed the CDU’s position, leaving it vulnerable to finishing under the 20 percent threshold in a fragmented field where no two-party coalition currently projects a majority. Trader pricing on the under side at 56 percent aligns with this polling pattern and the narrow margin of error in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Khối lượng
$541Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election place the CDU at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) showing 20 percent and Civey at 19 percent amid a close race with Die Linke (19–21 percent), AfD (16–18 percent), and the Greens (16–17 percent). The CDU’s share has fallen sharply from its 28.2 percent result in the 2023 repeat election, reflecting coalition fatigue in the CDU-SPD Senate, the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner over credibility issues, and the subsequent switch to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, which produced only a modest three-point rebound in mid-July surveys. Rising support for Die Linke and AfD has further compressed the CDU’s position, leaving it vulnerable to finishing under the 20 percent threshold in a fragmented field where no two-party coalition currently projects a majority. Trader pricing on the under side at 56 percent aligns with this polling pattern and the narrow margin of error in the final weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp