The expanded electorate for Berlin’s 20 September 2026 House of Representatives election underpins trader expectations of higher turnout. Eligible voters have risen above 2.5 million from roughly 2.43 million in the February 2023 repeat vote, driven by naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. Simultaneous district assembly elections further enlarge the pool, adding EU citizens at the local level. Recent polling shows a fragmented contest among CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and AfD, with no party holding a clear majority and coalition negotiations likely to remain open, increasing mobilization incentives. Comparable 2026 state contests elsewhere in Germany recorded turnout gains of several points, consistent with the 93.5 % market-implied probability that participation will exceed the prior 62.9 % benchmark.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUp
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Sep 20, 2026
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94% khả năng
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Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).The expanded electorate for Berlin’s 20 September 2026 House of Representatives election underpins trader expectations of higher turnout. Eligible voters have risen above 2.5 million from roughly 2.43 million in the February 2023 repeat vote, driven by naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. Simultaneous district assembly elections further enlarge the pool, adding EU citizens at the local level. Recent polling shows a fragmented contest among CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and AfD, with no party holding a clear majority and coalition negotiations likely to remain open, increasing mobilization incentives. Comparable 2026 state contests elsewhere in Germany recorded turnout gains of several points, consistent with the 93.5 % market-implied probability that participation will exceed the prior 62.9 % benchmark.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,871Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).The expanded electorate for Berlin’s 20 September 2026 House of Representatives election underpins trader expectations of higher turnout. Eligible voters have risen above 2.5 million from roughly 2.43 million in the February 2023 repeat vote, driven by naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. Simultaneous district assembly elections further enlarge the pool, adding EU citizens at the local level. Recent polling shows a fragmented contest among CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and AfD, with no party holding a clear majority and coalition negotiations likely to remain open, increasing mobilization incentives. Comparable 2026 state contests elsewhere in Germany recorded turnout gains of several points, consistent with the 93.5 % market-implied probability that participation will exceed the prior 62.9 % benchmark.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Khối lượng
$1,871Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The expanded electorate for Berlin’s 20 September 2026 House of Representatives election underpins trader expectations of higher turnout. Eligible voters have risen above 2.5 million from roughly 2.43 million in the February 2023 repeat vote, driven by naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. Simultaneous district assembly elections further enlarge the pool, adding EU citizens at the local level. Recent polling shows a fragmented contest among CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and AfD, with no party holding a clear majority and coalition negotiations likely to remain open, increasing mobilization incentives. Comparable 2026 state contests elsewhere in Germany recorded turnout gains of several points, consistent with the 93.5 % market-implied probability that participation will exceed the prior 62.9 % benchmark.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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