Strong trader consensus around a 90% implied probability that Sean "Diddy" Combs will not be released from federal custody in 2026 stems primarily from his October 2025 sentencing to 50 months in prison following a July 2025 conviction on two Mann Act counts of transportation to engage in prostitution. After time served and modest reductions from a residential drug abuse program at FCI Fort Dix, Bureau of Prisons projections place his release in early 2028. His appeal challenging the sentence remains pending before the Second Circuit with no indication of expedited resolution, while a presidential pardon has been explicitly ruled out. Ongoing civil litigation and additional allegations have not altered the criminal timeline. A successful appeal yielding substantial sentence reduction or an unexpected early release mechanism could theoretically shift the outcome, though such developments face steep procedural and evidentiary hurdles in the remaining months of 2026.