Traders' near-unanimous consensus for no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting reflects the March 19 decision to hold steady amid sticky Eurozone inflation revised to 2.6% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent ECB minutes reveal a hawkish pivot, with upside inflation risks highlighted by President Lagarde on April 17 amid Middle East tensions potentially stoking energy prices and growth drags. Policymakers downplayed April hikes on April 16, signaling data-dependent caution despite market bets on higher-for-longer policy. A sharp inflation undershoot, economic contraction, or dovish surprises in upcoming data releases could challenge this positioning, though barriers remain high given current momentum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 97.6%
Tăng 2.4%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản <1%
$730,065 KL.
$730,065 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
<1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
<1%
Không thay đổi
98%
Tăng
2%
Không thay đổi 97.6%
Tăng 2.4%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản <1%
$730,065 KL.
$730,065 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$146,804 KL.
<1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$112,383 KL.
<1%
Không thay đổi
$224,202 KL.
98%
Tăng
$246,675 KL.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Traders' near-unanimous consensus for no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting reflects the March 19 decision to hold steady amid sticky Eurozone inflation revised to 2.6% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent ECB minutes reveal a hawkish pivot, with upside inflation risks highlighted by President Lagarde on April 17 amid Middle East tensions potentially stoking energy prices and growth drags. Policymakers downplayed April hikes on April 16, signaling data-dependent caution despite market bets on higher-for-longer policy. A sharp inflation undershoot, economic contraction, or dovish surprises in upcoming data releases could challenge this positioning, though barriers remain high given current momentum.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Thị trường mở: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$730,065Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Traders' near-unanimous consensus for no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting reflects the March 19 decision to hold steady amid sticky Eurozone inflation revised to 2.6% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent ECB minutes reveal a hawkish pivot, with upside inflation risks highlighted by President Lagarde on April 17 amid Middle East tensions potentially stoking energy prices and growth drags. Policymakers downplayed April hikes on April 16, signaling data-dependent caution despite market bets on higher-for-longer policy. A sharp inflation undershoot, economic contraction, or dovish surprises in upcoming data releases could challenge this positioning, though barriers remain high given current momentum.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Khối lượng
$730,065Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders' near-unanimous consensus for no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting reflects the March 19 decision to hold steady amid sticky Eurozone inflation revised to 2.6% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent ECB minutes reveal a hawkish pivot, with upside inflation risks highlighted by President Lagarde on April 17 amid Middle East tensions potentially stoking energy prices and growth drags. Policymakers downplayed April hikes on April 16, signaling data-dependent caution despite market bets on higher-for-longer policy. A sharp inflation undershoot, economic contraction, or dovish surprises in upcoming data releases could challenge this positioning, though barriers remain high given current momentum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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