Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the constitution. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity through an interim leadership council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian and judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i. As of late August 2026, trader focus has shifted to Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence, health speculation, and the growing influence of IRGC figures amid military appointments and a fragile U.S. ceasefire. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic and security reviews, shape assessments of further leadership stability or transition risks within the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$24,154,841 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
11%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
18%
June 30, 2027
25%
$24,154,841 KL.
August 31
$1,479,938 KL.
<1%
September 30
$505,841 KL.
3%
October 31
$26,246 KL.
7%
November 30
$22,994 KL.
11%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$4,179,688 KL.
18%
June 30, 2027
$252,410 KL.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the constitution. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity through an interim leadership council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian and judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i. As of late August 2026, trader focus has shifted to Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence, health speculation, and the growing influence of IRGC figures amid military appointments and a fragile U.S. ceasefire. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic and security reviews, shape assessments of further leadership stability or transition risks within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$24,154,841Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the constitution. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity through an interim leadership council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian and judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i. As of late August 2026, trader focus has shifted to Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence, health speculation, and the growing influence of IRGC figures amid military appointments and a fragile U.S. ceasefire. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic and security reviews, shape assessments of further leadership stability or transition risks within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$24,154,841Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the constitution. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity through an interim leadership council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian and judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i. As of late August 2026, trader focus has shifted to Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence, health speculation, and the growing influence of IRGC figures amid military appointments and a fragile U.S. ceasefire. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic and security reviews, shape assessments of further leadership stability or transition risks within the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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