Recent polling in the Makerfield by-election shows Labour candidate Andy Burnham holding a narrow lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, with both in the low 40s percent range and Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd on single digits. This positioning keeps Kenyon the clear frontrunner for second place among traders, reflecting his established local profile as a repeat candidate and Reform's strong generic voting intention in the constituency. Scrutiny over Kenyon's past social media posts has emerged in the final weeks but has not altered the two-candidate dynamic enough to elevate other contenders. Shepherd's vote share creates some right-wing fragmentation yet remains well behind the main pair, while minor candidates register negligible support. The 18 June contest remains tight, with turnout and any late shifts in personal voting for Burnham the key variables that could reorder finishing positions.