Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with a slim 50% implied probability on <$23,500 edging out higher buckets like $33,000-$36,000 (42.5%), amid current levels near 26,600 following a recent rally to record highs on April 15-17 driven by easing Middle East war tensions. Key downward pressure stems from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate after March 2026 minutes, persistent inflation forecasts delaying cuts, and risks of Q1 tech earnings disappointments despite strong year-to-date gains of 4.3%. Differentiating factors include AI-driven revenue beats versus margin squeezes from high capex, alongside upcoming FOMC meetings and geopolitical resolutions that could swing sentiment toward 30,000+ or a 10-15% correction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$23,500-$25,000 79%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
$25,000-$26,500 42%
$30,500-$33,000 42%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
50%
$23,500-$25,000
79%
$25,000-$26,500
42%
$26,500-$28,500
42%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
42%
$33,000-$36,000
41%
>$36,000
46%
$23,500-$25,000 79%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
$25,000-$26,500 42%
$30,500-$33,000 42%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
$0 KL.
50%
$23,500-$25,000
$10 KL.
79%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 KL.
42%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 KL.
42%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 KL.
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 KL.
42%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 KL.
41%
>$36,000
$42 KL.
46%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with a slim 50% implied probability on <$23,500 edging out higher buckets like $33,000-$36,000 (42.5%), amid current levels near 26,600 following a recent rally to record highs on April 15-17 driven by easing Middle East war tensions. Key downward pressure stems from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate after March 2026 minutes, persistent inflation forecasts delaying cuts, and risks of Q1 tech earnings disappointments despite strong year-to-date gains of 4.3%. Differentiating factors include AI-driven revenue beats versus margin squeezes from high capex, alongside upcoming FOMC meetings and geopolitical resolutions that could swing sentiment toward 30,000+ or a 10-15% correction.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$52Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with a slim 50% implied probability on <$23,500 edging out higher buckets like $33,000-$36,000 (42.5%), amid current levels near 26,600 following a recent rally to record highs on April 15-17 driven by easing Middle East war tensions. Key downward pressure stems from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate after March 2026 minutes, persistent inflation forecasts delaying cuts, and risks of Q1 tech earnings disappointments despite strong year-to-date gains of 4.3%. Differentiating factors include AI-driven revenue beats versus margin squeezes from high capex, alongside upcoming FOMC meetings and geopolitical resolutions that could swing sentiment toward 30,000+ or a 10-15% correction.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Khối lượng
$52Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with a slim 50% implied probability on <$23,500 edging out higher buckets like $33,000-$36,000 (42.5%), amid current levels near 26,600 following a recent rally to record highs on April 15-17 driven by easing Middle East war tensions. Key downward pressure stems from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate after March 2026 minutes, persistent inflation forecasts delaying cuts, and risks of Q1 tech earnings disappointments despite strong year-to-date gains of 4.3%. Differentiating factors include AI-driven revenue beats versus margin squeezes from high capex, alongside upcoming FOMC meetings and geopolitical resolutions that could swing sentiment toward 30,000+ or a 10-15% correction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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