The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, lifting the implied probability that the justices will invalidate such restrictions to 55.5 percent. With a 6-3 conservative majority and recent signals from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch that AR-15-style rifles qualify as “arms in common use” under the Heller-Bruen framework, traders see a clear path to striking down the laws. The Court’s June expansion of Second Amendment protections in the Hawaii property-access case reinforced expectations that the same textual-historical approach will apply here. Oral arguments are scheduled for fall 2026, with a decision likely by June 2027; the outcome hinges on whether Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Barrett joins the bloc favoring invalidation, leaving the result closely contested until briefing and argument clarify their positions.