Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects 96.9% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required events—A AWS service disruption, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare outage—occurring together by the March 31, 2026, deadline. Individual component markets trade at low odds (e.g., AWS disruption by April 30 at 29%, Discord critical incident at 16%), underscoring the rarity of correlated cloud and service failures amid enhanced redundancies and no clustered incidents in the past 30 days. Recent AWS and Google Cloud status pages show operational stability through mid-April, with no fresh cyber threats or supply chain disruptions reported. Realistic risks include a sophisticated multi-vector cyber attack or geomagnetic event, though proximity to resolution limits upside for "Yes" without immediate catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$13,999 KL.
$13,999 KL.
Mar 31, 2026
$13,999 KL.
$13,999 KL.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects 96.9% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required events—A AWS service disruption, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare outage—occurring together by the March 31, 2026, deadline. Individual component markets trade at low odds (e.g., AWS disruption by April 30 at 29%, Discord critical incident at 16%), underscoring the rarity of correlated cloud and service failures amid enhanced redundancies and no clustered incidents in the past 30 days. Recent AWS and Google Cloud status pages show operational stability through mid-April, with no fresh cyber threats or supply chain disruptions reported. Realistic risks include a sophisticated multi-vector cyber attack or geomagnetic event, though proximity to resolution limits upside for "Yes" without immediate catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,999Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects 96.9% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required events—A AWS service disruption, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare outage—occurring together by the March 31, 2026, deadline. Individual component markets trade at low odds (e.g., AWS disruption by April 30 at 29%, Discord critical incident at 16%), underscoring the rarity of correlated cloud and service failures amid enhanced redundancies and no clustered incidents in the past 30 days. Recent AWS and Google Cloud status pages show operational stability through mid-April, with no fresh cyber threats or supply chain disruptions reported. Realistic risks include a sophisticated multi-vector cyber attack or geomagnetic event, though proximity to resolution limits upside for "Yes" without immediate catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Khối lượng
$13,999Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects 96.9% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required events—A AWS service disruption, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare outage—occurring together by the March 31, 2026, deadline. Individual component markets trade at low odds (e.g., AWS disruption by April 30 at 29%, Discord critical incident at 16%), underscoring the rarity of correlated cloud and service failures amid enhanced redundancies and no clustered incidents in the past 30 days. Recent AWS and Google Cloud status pages show operational stability through mid-April, with no fresh cyber threats or supply chain disruptions reported. Realistic risks include a sophisticated multi-vector cyber attack or geomagnetic event, though proximity to resolution limits upside for "Yes" without immediate catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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