Justin Pearson leads the TN-09 Democratic primary market at 82.5% implied probability due to his established name recognition as a state representative, progressive endorsements, and fundraising edge in the Memphis-based district. Steve Cohen’s mid-May 2026 withdrawal after Tennessee’s congressional redistricting removed the longtime incumbent from the race, shifting trader consensus toward Pearson as the clear frontrunner ahead of the August 6 primary. DeVante Hill trails at 8.5% as a lesser-known activist challenger, while remaining candidates including London Lamar draw minimal market attention. Recent campaign endorsements from House Democratic colleagues and progressive organizations have further reinforced Pearson’s positioning in the newly configured district.