The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, follows the court-ordered unseating of former MP Semisi Sika over electoral bribery and expense breaches from the 2025 general election, which also barred him from running again. Nine candidates registered after nominations closed in early September, creating a fragmented field that includes several independents with local ties across Kolofo’ou, Haveluloto, and nearby villages. Trader consensus reflects the lack of a single frontrunner, with vote-splitting likely under first-past-the-post rules and limited polling available. Developments such as candidate withdrawals, village-level endorsements, or turnout patterns in key polling areas could consolidate support and shift implied probabilities ahead of election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMele Teusivi 'Amanaki 47%
Lei Paasi 46%
Samiuela Vea 45%
Alvin Lafu Sika 29%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
47%
Lei Paasi
46%
Samiuela Vea
45%
Alvin Lafu Sika
29%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
27%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
24%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
Mounu Uaisele
8%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 47%
Lei Paasi 46%
Samiuela Vea 45%
Alvin Lafu Sika 29%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
47%
Lei Paasi
46%
Samiuela Vea
45%
Alvin Lafu Sika
29%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
27%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
24%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
Mounu Uaisele
8%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, follows the court-ordered unseating of former MP Semisi Sika over electoral bribery and expense breaches from the 2025 general election, which also barred him from running again. Nine candidates registered after nominations closed in early September, creating a fragmented field that includes several independents with local ties across Kolofo’ou, Haveluloto, and nearby villages. Trader consensus reflects the lack of a single frontrunner, with vote-splitting likely under first-past-the-post rules and limited polling available. Developments such as candidate withdrawals, village-level endorsements, or turnout patterns in key polling areas could consolidate support and shift implied probabilities ahead of election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp