Jon Bonck's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary runoff stems from his March 3 primary lead of 47% in a crowded 10-candidate field, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement, backing from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and recent support from Rep. Steve Toth on April 14. As a mortgage banker with a reported $1 million war chest, Bonck holds a clear fundraising edge over challenger Shelly deZevallos in this open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. The solidly Republican Houston-area district favors Bonck's organizational strength ahead of the May 26 runoff, where low turnout often benefits frontrunners. Upsets could arise from a late scandal, deZevallos fundraising surge, or unexpected voter shifts, though trader consensus reflects limited perceived risk.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-38 Republican Primary Winner
TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Jon Bonck 90.5%
Shelly deZevallos 2.3%
Barrett McNabb 1.1%
Jennifer Sundt 1.1%
$36,077 KL.
$36,077 KL.
Jon Bonck
91%
Shelly deZevallos
2%
Barrett McNabb
1%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Craig Goralski
1%
Carmen Montiel
1%
Larry Rubin
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Jeff Yuna
1%
Jon Bonck 90.5%
Shelly deZevallos 2.3%
Barrett McNabb 1.1%
Jennifer Sundt 1.1%
$36,077 KL.
$36,077 KL.
Jon Bonck
91%
Shelly deZevallos
2%
Barrett McNabb
1%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Craig Goralski
1%
Carmen Montiel
1%
Larry Rubin
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Jeff Yuna
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jon Bonck's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary runoff stems from his March 3 primary lead of 47% in a crowded 10-candidate field, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement, backing from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and recent support from Rep. Steve Toth on April 14. As a mortgage banker with a reported $1 million war chest, Bonck holds a clear fundraising edge over challenger Shelly deZevallos in this open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. The solidly Republican Houston-area district favors Bonck's organizational strength ahead of the May 26 runoff, where low turnout often benefits frontrunners. Upsets could arise from a late scandal, deZevallos fundraising surge, or unexpected voter shifts, though trader consensus reflects limited perceived risk.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp