Aston Villa's dominant 7-1 aggregate quarterfinal rout of Bologna, capped by a 4-0 home second-leg win on April 16, has entrenched their frontrunner status at 48.5% implied probability among traders, fueled by an unbeaten Europa League knockout streak—no English side has won more consecutive ties—and Unai Emery's proven European expertise. Nottingham Forest sit second at 19.2% after grinding out a 2-1 aggregate victory over Porto, including a crucial 1-0 home win via Morgan Gibbs-White, with first-leg semifinal home advantage at the City Ground against Villa on April 30 boosting sentiment. Freiburg's emphatic 6-1 thrashing of Celta Vigo (17.3%) and Braga's resilient 5-3 aggregate progress past Real Betis (12.1%) reflect strong recent form in the predetermined knockout bracket, setting up Braga-Freiburg in the opposite semifinal.