Established VCT Americas rosters such as NRG, Leviatán, and 100 Thieves lead early group-stage standings with strong records, yet multiple Tier 2 squads advanced from Play-Ins after competitive series and map splits driven by recent undefeated Challengers runs, roster continuity, and map familiarity. This parity sustains the even implied probability, as underdogs have demonstrated the ability to take maps from higher-seeded opponents in best-of-three formats. Late-stage playoff adaptation, individual peaks, and any additional upsets in the remaining Swiss or bracket matches could shift momentum toward a Tier 2 champion, while consistent execution from experienced lineups favors the established teams through the September conclusion.