Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by historical patterns where the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—typically loses seats, compounded by a record wave of 35 Republican retirements announced in March 2026, versus just 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable districts. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance and flips in Florida seats as of early April, alongside consistent 5-6 point Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling from Emerson, YouGov, and others, signal shifting momentum toward Democrats needing only a net handful of seats from tossups and battlegrounds. Upcoming primaries and potential economic or policy developments could influence swing states and turnout, though structural midterm penalties maintain the lopsided trader sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBên nào sẽ giành được Hạ viện vào năm 2026?
Bên nào sẽ giành được Hạ viện vào năm 2026?
$4,607,872 KL.
$4,607,872 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Kiếm 4%
Đảng Dân chủ
85%
Đảng Cộng hòa
16%
$4,607,872 KL.
$4,607,872 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Kiếm 4%
Đảng Dân chủ
$2,343,459 KL.
85%
Đảng Cộng hòa
$2,264,413 KL.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by historical patterns where the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—typically loses seats, compounded by a record wave of 35 Republican retirements announced in March 2026, versus just 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable districts. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance and flips in Florida seats as of early April, alongside consistent 5-6 point Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling from Emerson, YouGov, and others, signal shifting momentum toward Democrats needing only a net handful of seats from tossups and battlegrounds. Upcoming primaries and potential economic or policy developments could influence swing states and turnout, though structural midterm penalties maintain the lopsided trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Thị trường mở: Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,607,872Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by historical patterns where the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—typically loses seats, compounded by a record wave of 35 Republican retirements announced in March 2026, versus just 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable districts. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance and flips in Florida seats as of early April, alongside consistent 5-6 point Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling from Emerson, YouGov, and others, signal shifting momentum toward Democrats needing only a net handful of seats from tossups and battlegrounds. Upcoming primaries and potential economic or policy developments could influence swing states and turnout, though structural midterm penalties maintain the lopsided trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Khối lượng
$4,607,872Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by historical patterns where the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—typically loses seats, compounded by a record wave of 35 Republican retirements announced in March 2026, versus just 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable districts. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance and flips in Florida seats as of early April, alongside consistent 5-6 point Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling from Emerson, YouGov, and others, signal shifting momentum toward Democrats needing only a net handful of seats from tossups and battlegrounds. Upcoming primaries and potential economic or policy developments could influence swing states and turnout, though structural midterm penalties maintain the lopsided trader sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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