Anthropic’s recent shift toward marketing its IPO in mid-October, with a late-September prospectus release and potential listing before November midterms, drives the 96.7% market-implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company filed its confidential S-1 in early June and has advanced preparations including a large credit facility, positioning it on a faster track after a $965 billion private round. OpenAI filed a week later but has signaled a possible 2027 debut to secure a $1 trillion valuation amid volatile tech markets and post-SpaceX IPO caution, with internal discussions highlighting longer timelines. While strong trader consensus reflects these timelines, outcomes could shift if market conditions deteriorate sharply, regulators intervene, or either company accelerates or stalls due to valuation or operational hurdles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic
97% khả năng
$337,231 KL.
$337,231 KL.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
97% khả năng
$337,231 KL.
$337,231 KL.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s recent shift toward marketing its IPO in mid-October, with a late-September prospectus release and potential listing before November midterms, drives the 96.7% market-implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company filed its confidential S-1 in early June and has advanced preparations including a large credit facility, positioning it on a faster track after a $965 billion private round. OpenAI filed a week later but has signaled a possible 2027 debut to secure a $1 trillion valuation amid volatile tech markets and post-SpaceX IPO caution, with internal discussions highlighting longer timelines. While strong trader consensus reflects these timelines, outcomes could shift if market conditions deteriorate sharply, regulators intervene, or either company accelerates or stalls due to valuation or operational hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$337,231Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s recent shift toward marketing its IPO in mid-October, with a late-September prospectus release and potential listing before November midterms, drives the 96.7% market-implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company filed its confidential S-1 in early June and has advanced preparations including a large credit facility, positioning it on a faster track after a $965 billion private round. OpenAI filed a week later but has signaled a possible 2027 debut to secure a $1 trillion valuation amid volatile tech markets and post-SpaceX IPO caution, with internal discussions highlighting longer timelines. While strong trader consensus reflects these timelines, outcomes could shift if market conditions deteriorate sharply, regulators intervene, or either company accelerates or stalls due to valuation or operational hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$337,231Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent shift toward marketing its IPO in mid-October, with a late-September prospectus release and potential listing before November midterms, drives the 96.7% market-implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company filed its confidential S-1 in early June and has advanced preparations including a large credit facility, positioning it on a faster track after a $965 billion private round. OpenAI filed a week later but has signaled a possible 2027 debut to secure a $1 trillion valuation amid volatile tech markets and post-SpaceX IPO caution, with internal discussions highlighting longer timelines. While strong trader consensus reflects these timelines, outcomes could shift if market conditions deteriorate sharply, regulators intervene, or either company accelerates or stalls due to valuation or operational hurdles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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