US-Iran relations remain shaped by the February 2026 conflict that elevated Mojtaba Khamenei to supreme leader following his father's death and by the fragile June 2026 memorandum of understanding between President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iranian officials, including advisers to Khamenei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have repeatedly rejected prospects for direct Trump-Khamenei engagement as unrealistic, citing insufficient trust and ongoing disputes over sanctions, frozen assets, and compliance. Khamenei has stayed out of public view amid reports of serious injuries, with Iranian statements emphasizing mediated or indirect channels instead. Trump has voiced conditional openness to a meeting tied to a broader deal, yet recent developments show continued hardline resistance in Tehran and no scheduled bilateral contact. These barriers, alongside the preference for lower-level diplomacy, underpin trader assessments of limited near-term likelihood.