The dominant factor behind the 81.5% implied probability on no additional prison time is the May 15, 2026, mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape trial, where the jury deadlocked 9-3 in favor of acquittal on the Jessica Mann charge after just three days of deliberations. This outcome, following a prior hung jury and the 2024 overturn of his original conviction, has heightened uncertainty over whether prosecutors will pursue a fourth trial after the June 24 hearing, especially given Weinstein’s age (74), documented health complications including cancer and recent heart issues, and ongoing appeals. Traders appear to weigh the consecutive 16-year California sentence as already accounting for substantial incarceration, with any New York resolution likely resulting in concurrent time, a plea, or release on health grounds rather than meaningful new years served. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases involving elderly defendants further support the market’s heavy discounting of longer-term outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 81%10%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the case unresolved, which increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations in rape retrial
Weinstein experienced chest pains during jury deliberations, leading to court delays and highlighting his deteriorating health, which factored into market expectations of no new prison time from this case.
Weinstein’s New York jury begins deliberations on single‑count retrial
No Prison Time rises to 82%2%
Jury began deliberations for the single‑count retrial. The market stayed heavily weighted toward “No Prison Time” as the outcome was still pending.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Ends in Mistrial Due to Deadlocked Jury
No Prison Time rises to 80%3%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading to a mistrial declaration, which increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to unresolved sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's retrial jury deliberations begin in New York
Jury deliberations started in Weinstein's New York retrial, focusing on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, influencing market expectations as the trial neared conclusion.
Harvey Weinstein hires new legal team for upcoming New York retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 40%10%
Weinstein replaced his legal team with high-profile attorneys ahead of his New York retrial, signaling a strategic shift in defense that affected market perceptions of his chances and potential sentencing outcomes.
Sentencing finalized: Weinstein receives 23‑year prison term in New York
20-30 years plunges to 7%72%
With the sentencing now officially announced as a 23‑year term, the market’s “No Prison Time” price fell to its lowest point for the window, cementing the outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%70%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial declaration and increasing the likelihood of no additional prison time from this case.
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 79%9%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' option for this case, as the charge remains unresolved.
Judge sets July sentencing date for Weinstein retrial
20-30 years dips to 7%2%
Judge Farber announced a tentative sentencing date for late July, prompting the market to finally accept a high probability of prison; No Prison Time slid to 82 % from 93 % as the 20‑30‑year price steadied at 7 %.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time surges to 84%54%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome strongly increased the market's confidence in "No Prison Time" as the retrial did not conclude with a prison sentence.
Manhattan District Attorney to consult accuser on next steps after Weinstein mistrial
Following the mistrial, the DA's office announced it would consult Jessica Mann before deciding on a potential fourth trial, maintaining uncertainty but reinforcing market expectations of no immediate prison sentence.
Surprise witness claims Weinstein threatened victim in 2006
20-30 years rises to 9%2%
A surprise witness testified that Weinstein had threatened a victim, reviving fears of a long sentence; the 20‑30‑year price lifted to 9 % and No Prison Time fell back to 72 %.
Weinstein convicted and sentenced to 23‑year term in New York
20-30 years plunges to 8%76%
A jury verdict was announced, convicting Weinstein of a sexual‑act charge and sentencing him to 23 years (concurrent with his California term). This triggered the market to flip to “20‑30 years”.
Prosecutors urge jury to let Weinstein know the law applies to him
No Prison Time surges to 87%59%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments, emphasizing the seriousness of the charge, which triggered a sharp rise in the “No Prison Time” price as the market reacted to the impending verdict uncertainty.
Weinstein's Lawyer Considers Plea Deal to Avoid Fourth Trial
Following the mistrial, Weinstein's defense indicated openness to a plea deal that could run concurrently with existing sentences, suggesting limited additional prison time from New York retrials, which influenced market prices toward no new prison time.
Judge Farber postpones verdict in Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time drops to 84%9%
Following the closing arguments, Judge Farber announced a delayed verdict, keeping the outcome uncertain and causing a brief drop in the “No Prison Time” price before the market rebounded later in May.
Judge declares mistrial in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time drops to 80%7%
On May 15, 2026, the judge declared a mistrial after the jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, marking the third time a jury failed to reach a verdict on this charge. This event significantly increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for this retrial.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments urging jury to convict Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 89%19%
Prosecutors emphasized the power dynamics and strength of accusers, urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, which temporarily affected market prices but did not decisively shift outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%16%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial declaration. This event sharply increased market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' outcome as no sentencing occurred.
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 82%5%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann after more than two days of deliberations, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This left the New York rape charge unresolved and contributed to market confidence in no additional prison time from this retrial.
Jurors reveal reasons for deadlock in Harvey Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 82%5%
Jurors shared that the jury was split 9-3 in favor of not guilty, with some jurors expressing reasonable doubt about the prosecution's case, explaining the mistrial and reinforcing market expectations of no prison time from this retrial.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial ends in a mistrial after jury deadlocks
No Prison Time surges to 82%50%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the third-degree rape charge after three days of deliberations, resulting in a mistrial and pushing the 'No Prison Time' option to 82%.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 82%6%
The jury was deadlocked and unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading to a mistrial. This prolonged uncertainty contributed to the market's increased probability of "No Prison Time" for this retrial.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but acquitted on another in New York retrial
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with no verdict on the Jessica Mann rape charge, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing accountability, reinforcing the seriousness of charges and affecting market sentiment.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments in Weinstein’s New York retrial
Prosecutors emphasized the accusers' credibility and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the possibility of prison time but with ongoing uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein retrial closing arguments conclude with prosecution urging conviction
No Prison Time drops to 40%6%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the accusers' strength and the need to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the possibility of prison time but also highlighting the contested nature of the case.
Prosecutors urge jury to convict Harvey Weinstein in New York sex crimes retrial
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and urging conviction, intensifying the trial's climax and impacting market expectations on prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 71%42%
The retrial for the rape charge ended in a mistrial after the jury was deadlocked, leaving the charge unresolved and reinforcing market expectations of no additional prison time from this case.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations
No Prison Time surges to 87%34%
During jury deliberations in May 2026, Weinstein experienced chest pains and was briefly taken out of court, causing a temporary pause in deliberations. This health incident added uncertainty to the trial's outcome and affected market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution delivers closing arguments
No Prison Time surges to 79%39%
Prosecutors summarized accusers' testimonies and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the case against him and affecting market prices.
Prosecutors Deliver Closing Arguments Urging Conviction of Weinstein
No Prison Time drops to 28%9%
Prosecutors summarized accusers' testimonies and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, impacting market expectations of prison time but with uncertainty remaining.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations in rape retrial
During jury deliberations in Weinstein's 2026 New York rape retrial, he reported chest pains, causing the court to end deliberations early for the day. This health issue highlighted Weinstein's deteriorating condition but did not directly affect the trial outcome. The jury later resumed deliberations but ultimately deadlocked.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York sex crimes trial ends in mistrial due to hung jury
No Prison Time surges to 78%37%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and increasing market confidence in no additional prison time from this retrial.
Jury Deliberations Begin in Harvey Weinstein's Third Rape Trial
No Prison Time surges to 79%51%
After a monthlong trial, the jury began deliberating on the single count of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Jury Declared Mistrial After Deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%72%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and significantly increasing market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to uncertainty about further sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%38%
The jury in Weinstein's New York rape retrial failed to reach a unanimous verdict, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This was the third trial on the charge, with previous convictions overturned and a prior deadlock. The prosecution considered next steps, but no sentencing occurred.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'
No Prison Time jumps to 39%5%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and the strength of accusers, aiming to secure a conviction. This event created tension in the market but did not decisively shift probabilities away from "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears closing
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the retrial focusing on the Jessica Mann rape charge, highlighting the ongoing contest over the case's outcome and influencing market sentiment.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal as retrial nears close
No Prison Time surges to 93%68%
Weinstein’s defense made a high‑profile closing‑argument appeal for acquittal, intensifying media coverage and pushing the market’s “No Prison Time” price sharply higher as a conviction seemed less likely.
Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as retrial comes to close
No Prison Time surges to 80%47%
Defense urged acquittal during closing arguments, suggesting a possible no‑sentence outcome; the market briefly surged toward “No Prison Time”.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Defense closing arguments urged jurors to acquit Weinstein, framing the allegations as false and emphasizing complexities in the accuser's relationship with Weinstein. This influenced market sentiment by highlighting the defense's confidence and the trial's uncertain outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Closing arguments began with Weinstein's defense urging acquittal, emphasizing the complexity of the relationship with the accuser. This led to increased market uncertainty and a temporary dip in the no-prison-time probability.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
No Prison Time rises to 38%4%
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the retrial for rape charges, emphasizing inconsistencies and challenging accusers' credibility. This closing argument likely influenced market sentiment toward a lower likelihood of a lengthy prison sentence.
Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
Defense closing arguments emphasized the lack of proof for non-consensual sex, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal in closing arguments
No Prison Time jumps to 93%11%
Weinstein’s defense made a sweeping acquittal appeal during closing arguments, shaking confidence in a prison outcome; No Prison Time surged to 93 % from 82 % the previous day.
Harvey Weinstein hospitalized for emergency heart surgery amid serious health issues
No Prison Time surges to 82%50%
Weinstein underwent emergency heart surgery while awaiting retrial, raising questions about his health and potential impact on trial proceedings and sentencing, contributing to increased market belief in "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
No Prison Time jumps to 46%6%
Weinstein's defense made closing arguments urging acquittal, emphasizing consent and challenging accusers' credibility. This influenced market sentiment by raising the possibility of no prison time or a lighter sentence.
Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Retrial Closing Arguments
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the power dynamics and urging the jury to convict Weinstein, while defense argued accusers were motivated by money and fame, intensifying market speculation on sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's New York sex crimes retrial closing arguments conclude
Prosecutors urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, while defense claimed the accusers lied, setting the stage for jury deliberations and influencing market uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial opens in New York with opening statements
Opening statements began in Weinstein's New York retrial, with prosecutors emphasizing power and control, and defense focusing on consent. This event clarified trial narratives and influenced market sentiment on sentencing likelihood.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens for third time
10-20 years surges to 69%24%
A third opening of the retrial was reported, focusing on a single rape charge. The renewed focus on a single count increased market expectations of a possible prison sentence, pulling the price of “No Prison Time” down.
Judge Farber resumes Weinstein retrial, stresses gravity of rape charge
20-30 years drops to 7%12%
The trial reopened after a brief recess, and the judge emphasized the seriousness of the charge, causing the market to swing back toward prison expectations; No Prison Time dropped to 40 % from 51 %.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Opens with Opening Statements
10-20 years drops to 13%13%
The third Manhattan sex-crimes trial officially opened, focusing on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial opens with opening statements
Opening statements in the third retrial emphasized power and consent issues, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives, impacting market sentiment on conviction and sentencing likelihood.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial opens with opening statements
No Prison Time jumps to 40%12%
Opening statements in Weinstein's New York retrial emphasized power dynamics and consent, setting the tone for the trial and causing market fluctuations.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens in New York with opening statements
No Prison Time rises to 42%2%
Opening statements emphasized power and consent themes, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives, influencing market sentiment on sentencing likelihood.
Opening Statements Begin in Harvey Weinstein's Third Rape Trial
No Prison Time jumps to 33%7%
Prosecutors and defense attorneys delivered opening statements in the pared-down trial focusing on the 2013 hotel room encounter.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial opens with opening statements
The third trial, focused solely on the single charge of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann, officially opened in Manhattan.
Harvey Weinstein to face third New York retrial on rape charge
A new retrial was scheduled focusing on a single charge involving Jessica Mann, renewing market attention and speculation on the potential sentence outcome.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge with jury selection imminent
Jury selection was set to start for Weinstein's latest retrial focusing on a single rape charge, narrowing the case and influencing market expectations about the trial's outcome and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein faces retrial on New York rape charge focusing on Jessica Mann allegation
The retrial began focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with jury selection starting in April 2026. This narrowed focus influenced market expectations about the trial's outcome and potential sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge focusing on single accuser
No Prison Time surges to 70%42%
The retrial was narrowed to a single rape charge involving Jessica Mann, simplifying the case and possibly reducing the expected prison sentence, which influenced the market to favor "No Prison Time" more strongly.
Harvey Weinstein faces third New York rape retrial focusing on Jessica Mann charge
No Prison Time drops to 28%10%
A new retrial was scheduled focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with jury selection beginning. This renewed trial phase caused market fluctuations as the case's outcome remained uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial begins
No Prison Time surges to 27%20%
The third retrial of Harvey Weinstein on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann began in April 2026, focusing solely on this single charge after previous trials included multiple accusers and charges. This event marked a renewed legal effort and influenced market activity as the trial progressed.
Weinstein hires new lawyer Marc Agnifilo ahead of retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 84%6%
A new defence team led by Marc Agnifilo was announced ahead of the upcoming retrial, contributing to a sharp jump in “No Prison Time” as market participants expected a tougher defence.
Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
20-30 years rises to 12%4%
ABC reported that a new retrial on the lone rape charge would begin, re‑opening the possibility of a substantial sentence and driving the market away from “No Prison Time”.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Begins with Jury Selection
Jury selection started for Weinstein's third New York rape retrial focusing on the 2013 rape allegation by Jessica Mann. This retrial was a continuation of the unresolved legal process, impacting market sentiment with ongoing uncertainty about conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein retrial begins on rape charge in New York
Jury selection started for Weinstein's latest retrial on a third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This retrial focused on a single charge and accuser, streamlining the case. Weinstein denied all accusations and maintained the encounters were consensual.
Weinstein's New York rape retrial jury selection begins
No Prison Time surges to 28%22%
Jury selection started for Weinstein's latest New York retrial focusing on a single rape charge, narrowing the case and influencing market expectations toward a possible no prison time outcome.
Harvey Weinstein Faces Third New York Retrial on Rape Charge
Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York retrial focusing solely on the 2013 rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This renewed trial narrowed the scope to a single charge, influencing market expectations about the likelihood of prison time.
Jury Selection Begins in Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial
No Prison Time plunges to 26%17%
The third trial commenced in Manhattan, focusing solely on a single charge of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein faces retrial on New York rape charge involving Jessica Mann
No Prison Time drops to 28%12%
Jury selection began for Weinstein's latest retrial focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and potentially affecting sentencing outcomes. This development brought renewed attention to the case and influenced market probabilities.
Judge Sets April 14 Start Date for Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial
No Prison Time surges to 43%35%
New York Supreme Court Judge Curtis Farber scheduled the jury selection for Weinstein's latest retrial on the Jessica Mann rape allegations to begin on April 14.
Prosecutors unveil recorded phone call linking Weinstein to assault
20-30 years drops to 19%12%
Prosecutors presented a damning recorded phone call, raising expectations of a harsher sentence; the 20‑30‑year price climbed to 19 % while No Prison Time fell sharply to 51 % (peak).
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with Sean 'Diddy' Combs' Lawyers Ahead of Third Trial
No Prison Time drops to 5%8%
Weinstein hired a new legal team, including Marc Agnifilo, to represent him in his upcoming third New York trial after declining to end the matter with a guilty plea.
Weinstein defense moves to block pivotal victim testimony
No Prison Time jumps to 31%8%
Defense filed a motion to suppress key victim testimony, seen as a strategy to limit incriminating evidence; the market responded with a jump in No Prison Time to 31 % from 23 %.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with High-Profile Defense Attorneys Ahead of Third Trial
<5 years surges to 56%53%
Weinstein shook up his legal representation by hiring Jacob Kaplan and Marc Agnifilo, known for representing high-profile clients, to defend him in his upcoming third New York rape trial.
Harvey Weinstein replaces his legal team with high-profile defense attorneys
<5 years surges to 56%48%
Weinstein hired new lawyers, including Marc Agnifilo, to represent him in his upcoming third New York rape trial, signaling a shift in defense strategy.
Harvey Weinstein hires new lawyer Marc Agnifilo ahead of retrial
No Prison Time surges to 31%19%
Weinstein changed counsel, hiring Marc Agnifilo’s firm. The new defense team was seen as more aggressive, prompting a swing back toward the No Prison Time outcome; the price rose from 12 % to 31 % within a week.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense which influenced market expectations about trial outcomes.
Judge orders Weinstein retrial to finish by early June 2026
20-30 years jumps to 47%14%
Judge Farber set a deadline for the trial to end by the first week of June, tightening the timeline and increasing conviction pressure; the 20‑30‑year option rose to 47 % while No Prison Time fell to 8 %.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in defense that affected market perceptions of trial outcomes and sentencing likelihood.
Judge denies Weinstein's motion for new trial amid juror complaints
No Prison Time rises to 9%3%
A New York judge denied Harvey Weinstein's request for a new trial despite juror complaints of coercion, affirming the partial conviction for sexual assault on Miriam Haley. The judge declared a mistrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann due to jury deadlock, setting the stage for another retrial.
Judge Denies Harvey Weinstein's Motion for New Trial on Miriam Haley Conviction
No Prison Time surges to 25%18%
Judge Curtis Farber rejected Weinstein's bid to set aside his June 2025 conviction, solidifying the conviction and paving the way for a retrial on the deadlocked rape charge.
Prosecutors hint at plea‑bargain talks in Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time surges to 37%28%
Prosecutors announced a possible plea‑bargain discussion, fueling hopes of a reduced sentence; the No Prison Time price spiked to 37 % from 9 % earlier in the month.
Prosecutors say they will review next steps after Weinstein‑mistrial
No Prison Time plunges to 9%32%
A New York appellate decision upheld the mistrial and announced that prosecutors would consider a fourth trial, reviving speculation of a future sentence and causing the market’s “No Prison Time” price to dip.
Analysis: Public fatigue with Weinstein case lowers sentencing expectations
No Prison Time jumps to 48%13%
A major media analysis piece highlighted the dwindling public sympathy for Weinstein, nudging the market back toward “No Prison Time” after a brief rise in longer‑sentence bets earlier in December.
Weinstein sentenced to 16 years in California for rape and sexual assault
In December 2022, Weinstein was convicted in Los Angeles on three counts of rape and sexual assault and sentenced to 16 years in prison. This sentence is separate from the New York case and contributes to his overall prison time, making it likely he will spend the rest of his life incarcerated regardless of New York retrial outcomes.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal in closing arguments
5-10 years plunges to 1%70%
Defense lawyers intensified their acquittal push during closing arguments, leading the market to briefly swing toward longer sentences as prosecutors prepared for a possible conviction.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley in New York retrial
A jury convicted Weinstein of sexually abusing Haley, but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola and deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict maintained uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
Weinstein was indicted on new sexual assault charges involving three victims, signaling ongoing legal challenges and potential for further retrials. This development affected market perceptions by extending the timeline and complexity of his New York legal battles.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
20-30 years surges to 47%15%
A Manhattan grand jury indicted Weinstein on three new sexual assault charges, signaling prosecutors' intent to pursue additional allegations and potentially increasing the likelihood of a prison sentence.
Weinstein indicted on new charges after conviction overturned
No Prison Time rises to 31%2%
Weinstein was indicted on new charges involving three victims, extending the legal proceedings and affecting market confidence in a long prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time surges to 30%21%
The retrial began with opening statements in November 2025, introducing a new accuser Kaja Sokola and revisiting charges from previous trials. This event renewed market attention and caused volatility as the trial's outcome was uncertain.
Weinstein hospitalized for emergency heart surgery
No Prison Time dips to 6%3%
Weinstein underwent emergency heart surgery, leading to speculation about trial delay; uncertainty pushed the No Prison Time price down to 6 % as a possible future postponement was seen as beneficial to the defense.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense that influenced market perceptions of trial outcomes.
Grand jury indicts Weinstein on three additional New York sex‑crime counts
20-30 years surges to 33%21%
A grand jury indictment added three new counts, raising the potential exposure and causing the 20‑30‑year price to jump from 12 % to 33 %, while No Prison Time slipped to 12 %.
New charges filed against Harvey Weinstein in New York
A New York grand jury indicted Weinstein on new charges in September 2024, which prosecutors sought to consolidate into his retrial. This development extended the legal proceedings and contributed to the complexity and length of the retrial process.
Weinstein replaces legal team as New York retrial looms
10-20 years rises to 30%2%
Weinstein hired a new legal team ahead of a possible fourth trial, reviving market expectations of a harsher sentence if he is convicted again.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
Weinstein was indicted on new charges involving three victims, extending the legal process and affecting market expectations of his prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
Weinstein was indicted on three new sexual assault charges in New York, adding complexity to his legal situation and potentially affecting sentencing outcomes. This raised uncertainty about the retrial's scope and possible prison time.
Judge restricts evidence on Weinstein’s social‑list in retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
Judge Farber limited evidence on “friends of Harvey” list, perceived as a win for the defense; the market’s confidence in a prison sentence weakened, pushing No Prison Time to 9 % after a brief dip.
New accuser Kaja Sokola identified in Weinstein retrial opening
<5 years rises to 10%3%
The identification of a new accuser (Kaja Sokola) in opening statements raised speculation of additional charges, pushing the market briefly toward longer‑sentence outcomes.
Prosecutors narrow Weinstein retrial to a single rape count
No Prison Time drops to 7%6%
Prosecutors announced they would seek a single‑count rape charge rather than multiple counts, narrowing the case and raising doubts about a lengthy sentence; No Prison Time price fell to 7 %.
Prosecutors open Weinstein retrial with power‑abuse narrative
No Prison Time plunges to 7%21%
Prosecution opening statements highlighted Weinstein’s alleged abuse of power, causing a modest rise in “No Prison Time” as the jury heard the case but no verdict was yet rendered.
Analysts discuss whether Weinstein’s California sentence will run concurrently
No Prison Time drops to 45%8%
Media speculation that Weinstein’s California 16‑year sentence could be served concurrently lowered expectations for additional New York time, causing a modest dip in the longer‑sentence options.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including high-profile lawyers, signaling a strategic shift in his defense which influenced market expectations about trial outcomes and sentencing.
Jury deadlocks on rape charge in Weinstein retrial, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 4%3%
The jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about sentencing and influenced market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about a prison sentence from this retrial, pushing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Weinstein’s retrial ends in mistrial on third‑degree rape charge
5-10 years drops to 5%9%
A mistrial was declared on the unresolved rape count, leaving the already‑imposed sentence on the assault count as the only possible prison time, reinforcing the “5‑10 years” outcome.
Harvey Weinstein retrial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 25%18%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the case unresolved, which increased the market's probability of "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Rape Charge
The jury in Weinstein's New York retrial failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This prolonged the legal process and left the market uncertain about additional prison time from this case.
Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but jury deadlocks on rape charge
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
In June 2025, Weinstein was convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but the jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial conviction and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault on Miriam Haley in New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
A New York jury convicted Harvey Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing from this retrial.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This outcome increased uncertainty about Weinstein receiving prison time from this retrial, influencing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Jury deadlocks in Weinstein retrial on rape charge, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 5%2%
The jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and increasing uncertainty about a conviction in this retrial, impacting market prices toward 'No Prison Time'.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial ends in mistrial on rape charge
No Prison Time surges to 49%34%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market uncertainty and the probability of no additional prison time from this case.
Weinstein retrial ends in mistrial on rape charge
No Prison Time dips to 80%4%
A jury declared a mistrial on the remaining rape charge, leading the market to resolve to “No Prison Time” as no sentence could be rendered.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial Due to Jury Deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, prompting Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased the probability that no additional prison time would be imposed from this retrial, affecting market prices accordingly.
Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Jessica Mann Charge
No Prison Time plunges to 25%25%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market expectations for "No Prison Time" from the New York retrial due to unresolved charges and ongoing legal uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge
5-10 years jumps to 15%8%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to mixed market reactions with some increase in conviction probabilities.
Judge Declares Mistrial on Jessica Mann Rape Charge After Jury Foreman Reports Intimidation
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
The judge declared a mistrial on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann after the jury foreman refused to continue, alleging bullying by other jurors.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Criminal Sexual Act in New York Retrial Mixed Verdict
10-20 years drops to 26%7%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty of a criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, while deadlocking on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexually Abusing Miriam Haley but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 41%27%
Weinstein was found guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley, but the jury deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and a mistrial on that count.
Weinstein convicted on one count and acquitted on another in New York retrial; mistrial declared on rape charge
In the 2025 New York retrial, Weinstein was convicted of a criminal sexual act and acquitted on another charge, but the jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This mixed verdict created uncertainty in the market about his final prison sentence from the New York case.
Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault, Acquitted on Another, Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury convicted Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict influenced market prices, increasing probability of no additional prison time.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 47%46%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, while failing to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault of Miriam Haley but jury deadlocks on rape charge
10-20 years plunges to 3%47%
A New York jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, while failing to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault on one count, acquitted on another in retrial
5-10 years plunges to 15%35%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury was deadlocked on the charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to continued uncertainty about sentencing and prison time.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
The jury found Weinstein guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted him on another, with no verdict on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict created uncertainty, impacting market prices for different prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault on Miriam Haley but acquitted on Kaja Sokola charge
<5 years surges to 40%34%
In the New York retrial, the jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to uncertainty about sentencing and impacting market prices for prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
5-10 years jumps to 13%11%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola, with no verdict reached on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict caused market shifts reflecting mixed expectations for prison time.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
<5 years surges to 35%29%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to ongoing uncertainty about sentencing and prison time.
Harvey Weinstein retrial ends in partial verdict with mistrial on rape charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The retrial resulted in a conviction for forcing oral sex on Miriam Haley but acquittal on another charge and a mistrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, creating uncertainty about final sentencing and influencing market prices.
Weinstein's New York retrial jury deliberations begin
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
Jury deliberations started in Weinstein's New York retrial, with mixed expectations about the outcome. This event caused some volatility in market prices as the trial's resolution approached.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual abuse of Miriam Haley in New York retrial
5-10 years dips to 12%3%
In June 2025, Weinstein was convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with the jury deadlocking on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial conviction influenced market prices, reducing the likelihood of no prison time and increasing mid-range sentence probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
A majority-male jury could not reach a unanimous decision on the rape charge, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the New York conviction in limbo.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
<5 years rises to 10%4%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted him on another, with deliberations ongoing on a third charge. This partial verdict influenced market prices by confirming some prison time risk but leaving uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys including Jacob Kaplan and others, signaling a strategic shift in his defense for the retrial, which may affect trial dynamics and market perceptions.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team as retrial looms
No Prison Time jumps to 28%11%
Weinstein’s new counsel Jacob Kaplan took over the defence, a development that lifted “No Prison Time” sharply as analysts speculated a more aggressive defence strategy.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial ends in a mistrial
No Prison Time drops to 7%7%
Weinstein appeared in court for jury deliberations, but the jury dead‑locked on the third‑degree rape charge, leading to a mistrial. The lack of a conviction drove the market sharply toward “No Prison Time.”
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
<5 years dips to 6%1%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge and the jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial opens with opening statements and new accuser identified
20-30 years jumps to 29%12%
Opening statements began with prosecutors outlining the case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, added to the charges. This development heightened the seriousness of the retrial and influenced market prices by increasing perceived risk of prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser identified, renewing focus on Weinstein's alleged sexual offenses. This event marked the formal restart of the legal process after his 2020 conviction was overturned, impacting market expectations about potential prison time.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, influencing market perceptions of his chances.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with jury selection
The retrial started with jury selection in Manhattan, focusing on sexual assault charges for which his previous conviction was overturned. This event marked the official restart of the case, impacting market expectations about the trial's outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with jury selection
Jury selection started for Weinstein's retrial on sexual assault charges in New York, marking the official restart of the case after his 2020 conviction was overturned. This event initiated market activity reflecting renewed legal proceedings.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team Ahead of Retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including Luigi Mangione and Sean 'Diddy' Combs’ lawyers, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, impacting market perceptions of his defense strength.
Weinstein’s lawyer says public protests have died down
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
Weinstein’s lawyer publicly said the #MeToo protests had faded, prompting a brief dip in “No Prison Time” as the market sensed a less hostile environment for the defence.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including Jacob Kaplan, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, impacting market perceptions of his chances.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
Weinstein was indicted on three new sexual assault charges in New York, adding complexity to his legal situation and likely affecting market perceptions of potential prison time.
Weinstein convicted of one count, acquitted of another; jury deadlocked on third
5-10 years jumps to 14%11%
The jury reached a mixed verdict: guilty on one count, acquitted on another, and deadlocked on the third. The partial conviction introduced a concrete prison term range, shifting market weight toward the 5‑10‑year bracket.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser testifying, renewing focus on Weinstein's alleged sexual crimes. This event marked the formal restart of the legal process after his 2020 conviction was overturned, impacting market expectations about potential prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, coming forward. This renewed legal challenge increased uncertainty about Weinstein's potential prison sentence, initially lowering the market's confidence in 'No Prison Time'.
Harvey Weinstein New York retrial begins with jury selection
The retrial started with jury selection in Manhattan, reopening the case after the 2020 conviction was overturned due to improper testimony. This event marked the official restart of the legal process, impacting market prices by increasing uncertainty about the outcome.
Harvey Weinstein New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time surges to 80%30%
The retrial commenced after the 2020 conviction was overturned, with prosecutors presenting their case and the defense making initial arguments, increasing uncertainty about a prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial begins with jury selection
No Prison Time plunges to 13%37%
The New York retrial officially opened with jury selection, confirming that Weinstein would face a new trial and reviving expectations of a possible prison sentence. The market reacted sharply, driving the No Prison Time price from 50 % down to 13 % as investors priced in a higher likelihood of a conviction.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial for sex crimes begins with jury selection
The retrial started with jury selection in Manhattan, marking the beginning of a new legal phase after his 2020 conviction was overturned. This event initiated market activity reflecting uncertainty about the retrial outcome.
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警惕外部連結哦。
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