Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Beijing on May 8?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 8?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$105,277 交易量
$105,277 交易量
2026-05-08
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$105,277 交易量
$105,277 交易量
2026-05-08
23°C or below
$6,822 交易量
No
24°C
$6,487 交易量
No
25°C
$7,863 交易量
No
26°C
$15,366 交易量
No
27°C
$12,807 交易量
No
28°C
$16,938 交易量
Yes
29°C
$15,876 交易量
No
30°C
$9,951 交易量
No
31°C
$4,737 交易量
No
32°C
$4,170 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$4,261 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
交易量
$105,277结束日期
2026-05-08市场开放时间
May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$105,277结束日期
2026-05-08市场开放时间
May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题