Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, with multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey showing the party at or below the 13% threshold amid a broader decline from its 18.4% result in 2023. As the junior partner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, the party under lead candidate Steffen Krach has trailed the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in recent fieldwork, reflecting voter shifts toward opposition parties. These consistent survey trends underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability for an under-13% outcome, though final results remain subject to turnout and late campaign dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডOver
25% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
Over
25% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, with multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey showing the party at or below the 13% threshold amid a broader decline from its 18.4% result in 2023. As the junior partner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, the party under lead candidate Steffen Krach has trailed the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in recent fieldwork, reflecting voter shifts toward opposition parties. These consistent survey trends underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability for an under-13% outcome, though final results remain subject to turnout and late campaign dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
ভলিউম
$193শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, with multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey showing the party at or below the 13% threshold amid a broader decline from its 18.4% result in 2023. As the junior partner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, the party under lead candidate Steffen Krach has trailed the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in recent fieldwork, reflecting voter shifts toward opposition parties. These consistent survey trends underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability for an under-13% outcome, though final results remain subject to turnout and late campaign dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ভলিউম
$193শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, with multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey showing the party at or below the 13% threshold amid a broader decline from its 18.4% result in 2023. As the junior partner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, the party under lead candidate Steffen Krach has trailed the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in recent fieldwork, reflecting voter shifts toward opposition parties. These consistent survey trends underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability for an under-13% outcome, though final results remain subject to turnout and late campaign dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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