Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 64% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates for the June 2026 meeting, with 28.5% for a 25 basis point increase, capturing inflation upside risks amid tepid growth. Surging March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI—revised to 2.6% year-over-year on April 16, up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions, has driven ECB staff projections higher to 2.6% average inflation for 2026, versus prior estimates. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid 0.9% GDP growth forecasts, but rising Eurozone bond yields signal mounting hike bets from JPMorgan and Bloomberg surveys anticipating June action. Watch April 30 policy decision and May CPI for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo change 64%
25 bps Increase 34%
50+ bps increase 3.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
$21,864 Vol.
$21,864 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
64%
25 bps Increase
34%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 64%
25 bps Increase 34%
50+ bps increase 3.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
$21,864 Vol.
$21,864 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,793 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,448 Vol.
<1%
No change
$5,144 Vol.
64%
25 bps Increase
$4,461 Vol.
34%
50+ bps increase
$5,019 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 64% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates for the June 2026 meeting, with 28.5% for a 25 basis point increase, capturing inflation upside risks amid tepid growth. Surging March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI—revised to 2.6% year-over-year on April 16, up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions, has driven ECB staff projections higher to 2.6% average inflation for 2026, versus prior estimates. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid 0.9% GDP growth forecasts, but rising Eurozone bond yields signal mounting hike bets from JPMorgan and Bloomberg surveys anticipating June action. Watch April 30 policy decision and May CPI for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$21,864শেষ তারিখ
Jun 11, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 64% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates for the June 2026 meeting, with 28.5% for a 25 basis point increase, capturing inflation upside risks amid tepid growth. Surging March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI—revised to 2.6% year-over-year on April 16, up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions, has driven ECB staff projections higher to 2.6% average inflation for 2026, versus prior estimates. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid 0.9% GDP growth forecasts, but rising Eurozone bond yields signal mounting hike bets from JPMorgan and Bloomberg surveys anticipating June action. Watch April 30 policy decision and May CPI for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ভলিউম
$21,864শেষ তারিখ
Jun 11, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 64% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates for the June 2026 meeting, with 28.5% for a 25 basis point increase, capturing inflation upside risks amid tepid growth. Surging March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI—revised to 2.6% year-over-year on April 16, up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions, has driven ECB staff projections higher to 2.6% average inflation for 2026, versus prior estimates. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid 0.9% GDP growth forecasts, but rising Eurozone bond yields signal mounting hike bets from JPMorgan and Bloomberg surveys anticipating June action. Watch April 30 policy decision and May CPI for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা