Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 94% for Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship being revoked by year-end 2026, driven by the absence of any official U.S. government action despite heightened scrutiny during the February 2026 Winter Olympics. Natural-born U.S. citizen Gu, who has competed for China since 2019, faces no State Department proceedings, Federal Register expatriation listing, or judicial challenges to her status—requirements for involuntary revocation, which is exceedingly rare absent proven naturalization fraud or treason conviction. Recent criticisms from figures like JD Vance and public petitions for status clarification generated media buzz but prompted no executive or legislative response, solidifying trader confidence in the legal barriers to change.