**Trader consensus at 98.7% against revocation before 2027 reflects the narrow legal standards for denaturalization of naturalized U.S. citizens like Zohran Mamdani, who was born in Uganda and obtained citizenship in 2018 after lawful permanent residency.** No verified evidence of material misrepresentation on his naturalization application has emerged from prior Republican-led inquiries, including Rep. Andy Ogles’ 2025 requests to the DOJ citing political associations or past statements. Courts require proof of willful fraud for such proceedings, a high bar with limited precedent outside criminal convictions or clear concealment. Mamdani’s election and service as New York City mayor further underscore institutional acceptance of his status. Realistic shifts could occur only if the DOJ uncovered substantiated new evidence of ineligibility and pursued successful litigation, though the absence of such developments to date underpins the current pricing.