Legal standards for denaturalization require judicial proof of material fraud or misrepresentation during the naturalization process, a high bar with few successful precedents outside serious criminal immigration violations. Zohran Mamdani, a naturalized U.S. citizen since 2018 after arriving as a child, faces no confirmed evidence meeting that threshold despite 2025 congressional calls and administration scrutiny tied to his political associations and mayoral candidacy. Traders assign 98.7% probability to no revocation before 2027 because DOJ investigations and court proceedings move slowly, face constitutional limits, and lack viable grounds here. Late developments such as newly disclosed application discrepancies or successful prosecutions could theoretically shift odds, though timelines and evidentiary requirements make rapid change improbable.